MARKET INSIGHT

Supply, rates and the real cost of moving.

By Beg & Sood Real Estate Group · September 30, 2026 · TRREB reporting period: August 2026

For anyone planning a move, three things deserve attention alongside the next rate announcement: local supply, actual borrowing costs and government housing incentives.

The GTA numbers — August 2026

• Sales: 5,057, down 2.1% from a year earlier.
• New listings: 12,075, down 14.1%.
• Homes available at month-end: 24,482, down 11.3%.
• Benchmark prices: down 4.5% overall; apartments down 7.1%, compared with 4.5% for detached homes.

TRREB August Market Watch

Our read: supply contracted faster than sales compared with last year. Buyers' choice could narrow if that continues. Prices still vary by property type and neighbourhood; a broad rebound is not established.

Interest rates: a hold does not freeze mortgage pricing

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2. The next decision is October 28. In its September 2 statement, the Bank also reported that long-term bond yields had risen since July, while energy costs and tariffs were adding inflation risk.

Bank of Canada — September 2

Variable mortgage pricing is more directly linked to lenders' prime rates. New fixed-rate offers depend on bond markets and lenders' funding costs as well. A rate hold does not mean your next fixed-rate quote will stay the same.

Bank of Canada mortgage-rate explainer

Our approach: compare payments using today's written mortgage quotes and a comfortable budget. Treat a future rate cut as a possibility, rather than the foundation of a purchase plan.

Government incentives are changing the comparison

The federal first-time buyer rebate can return up to $50,000 on qualifying new or substantially renovated primary residences. Full relief of the GST or federal portion of HST applies up to $1 million and phases out by $1.5 million.

CRA federal rebate

Ontario's temporary enhanced new-housing relief also reaches eligible repeat buyers. For typical house-and-land purchases from a builder, the agreement window is April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027; price, occupancy and construction conditions apply. Some rebates offset others, so advertised maximums should not simply be added together. These programs do not apply to ordinary resale purchases.

CRA Ontario rebate · Eligibility

Our takeaway: compare a new home's actual cost after eligible rebates and builder credits with nearby resale alternatives. Check which rebates are already reflected in the advertised price.

Explore brand new homes and preconstruction projects alongside your resale search.

What we would focus on for your next move

• Selling: price against the closest recent sales and the alternatives buyers can purchase today, including competing new builds.
• Buying: compare total monthly costs, condition and location alongside the asking price.
• Selling and buying: calculate both sides together. Your sale proceeds, next purchase price, moving costs and financing determine the cost of the move.